The US economy fell at a 6.1 per cent pace in the first quarter of 2009, the government said on Wednesday, signalling little improvement in a deep recession.

The Commerce Department’s first estimate of gross domestic product was a disappointment to private forecasters expecting a 4.7 per cent decline, and marked only a marginal improvement over the 6.3 per cent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The decline marked the third consecutive quarter of contraction for the world’s biggest economy, which had not occurred since 1974-75.

The steep fall was the result of falling exports, weak housing and business investment, offset in part by improved consumer spending.

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Financial Year 2008-2009 has been one of the roughest years not just for Corporate India but also for small businesses, individuals and families.

As one enters the new financial year, the key questions in every person’s mind are “Where are we headed? Is our business or job secure? Where do we park our money and more importantly what should be our strategy now?”

Equity markets have their own way of surprising everyone. The rhetoric of gloom and doom was so strong that everyone took for granted that the only way the markets could go was down. Once again, the uncertainty (though on the upside now) witnessed in the last 3 weeks has been unprecedented. The Sensex has once again kissed 11000 but no one knows where the market will head two months down the line.

There is still no improvement in the global economic scenario however there are several measures that have been taken by governments and central banks around the world with the latest being the $ 1 trillion infusion as emergency aid. The scenario today is far different than what has been in the past and looking at history to provide answers might not help at all. Nobody has any clue where we will land up 6-8 months down the line. (more…)